Opposition Grows to Tony Blair's Bid for E.U. President

Here's a riddle: What unites French Socialists and British Conservatives, brings feminists together with the editors of prurient tabloid newspapers and gives shared purpose to a clutch of small European countries and more than 37,000 signatories to an online petition? Answer: Tony Blair. Across Europe, natural adversaries and strange bedfellows are finding common purpose in their efforts to stop Britain's former Prime Minister from assuming the role popularly known as president of Europe.
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When Ireland and Poland ratified the Lisbon Treaty earlier this month, that left only Czech President Vaclav Klaus holding out against the document that is designed to re-engineer the European Union's institutions to better match the realities of its expanded membership. Once Klaus signs the treaty — frantic efforts are afoot to try to persuade him to do so — the E.U. can start its highest-level executive-recruitment search to date. The treaty would create two top E.U. jobs: president of the European Council and High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, effectively the E.U.'s foreign minister. Blair is seen as front runner for the presidency. ***********0000ff](See pictures of the George W. Bush-Tony Blair friendship.)[/COLOR]


You might think Blair's international cachet would be cause for British hearts to swell with pride, but some of his most bitter opponents are homegrown. Opinion polls point to an expected Conservative victory in British parliamentary elections in May 2010, and the Tories will campaign on a Euroskeptic platform that has already seen them withdraw from the main Conservative grouping in the European Parliament to cobble together an anti-federalist alternative. They dislike the idea of a high-profile, high-powered E.U. president such as Blair, who would surely increase the influence of Brussels. But many Tories also feel personal animus toward the politician whose electoral success consigned them to the wilderness for so long. "Having President Blair would put us in a state of permanent warfare if we won the election. I cannot stress how serious this is," an unnamed Tory source recently told Britain's Daily Telegraph newspaper.
Not all Blair's opponents are on the right. As Prime Minister, he drew criticism from across the political spectrum for appearing too "presidential" and making decisions with scant regard for Parliament or the Cabinet. He and his wife Cherie also gained a reputation for enjoying the trappings of power. When Blair's name was linked with the European presidency, national tabloids rechristened the pair "Boney Blair" and "Cherie Antoinette" after those high-handed continentals Napoleon Bonaparte and Marie Antoinette. ***********0000ff](See the top 10 colorful First Spouses.)[/COLOR]
More damaging to Blair's prospects is the enduring anger over Blair's cheerleading for the invasion of Iraq. When the latest inquiry into the war consulted with families of dead troops this week, a group of relatives called for Blair to be indicted as a war criminal. Blair's determination to stand shoulder to shoulder with the U.S. on Iraq curdled public opinion outside Britain too. François Hollande, the former first secretary of the French Socialist Party, has dismissed the idea of a Blair candidacy. The first president of Europe, he said, should be "politically autonomous from the U.S."
Philippe Moreau Defarges, European affairs specialist for the French Institute of International Relations, sees Iraq as the first strike against Blair. But he also believes that Britain's history of semi-detachment from the E.U. rules him out. "The very candidacy of Mr. Blair is a slap in the face for Europe, given his action regarding the Iraq war, the very strong positions he's taken to counter prevailing European objectives during E.U. construction and the U.K.'s own habit of participating only in those E.U. projects it wants to be involved with," says Moreau Defarges. "I'm not calling into question the honor or qualities of Tony Blair as a man, but as a politician he's one of the last people who should be considered as president of Europe. It makes no sense."
The Benelux countries — the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg — argue that Britain's failure to adopt the euro as its currency rules it out of claiming the top job for one of its nationals. Alternative candidates include a brace of Premiers: Jan Peter Balkenende from the Netherlands, François Fillon from France and Jean-Claude Juncker from Luxembourg. With the presidencies of the E.U. Commission and European Parliament already held by men, another figure gaining support is the former Irish President Mary Robinson. E.U. Commission Vice President Margot Wallström, a Swede, is not openly campaigning for Robinson but has a link on her personal Facebook profile to a campaign for Robinson set up by Facebook users. ***********0000ff](See the 50 best websites of 2009.)[/COLOR]
Blair does have his supporters. "Tony Blair has all the right credentials," wrote Italy's embattled leader Silvio Berlusconi in a letter to an Italian newspaper on Wednesday. Ireland's former Premier Bertie Ahern also says that Blair should get the job. "Tony's a good friend of mine, and I'd like to see him get it if he really wants it. I'm positive that he does," Ahern tells TIME, adding, "Tony is not going to walk into this without a lot of stuff going on in the background. There will be games going on." ***********0000ff](Read a Q&A with Bertie Ahern.)[/COLOR]
Indeed there will. France's President, Nicolas Sarkozy, is Blair's most persuasive champion, and the Italians, Poles and Spanish are also on board. But two things could still scupper Blair's chances when the E.U. horse-trading begins: a coalition of small countries coalescing around an alternative candidate or a "nein" from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the leader of Europe's largest economy. Westminster insiders say Merkel will back Blair, though without enthusiasm. A German government source is more nuanced. "The Chancellor worked well with [Blair] during the 2007 German E.U. presidency when the Lisbon Treaty was sealed. But of course, she worked well with others too."
The presidential race isn't over until the E.U.'s undisputed heavyweight sings.
— With reporting by Bruce Crumley / Paris

 

I could definitely see Tony Blair clenching the nomination.

Then, things will be one step closer...